Broadband Penetration Leveling

Some 55 percent of adult Americans now have broadband internet connections at home, up from 47 percent who had high-speed access at home last year, say researchers at the Pew Internet & American Life Project. But researchers at the Gartner Group now predict 77 percent broadband penetration of U.S. households by 2012.

Just over half of U.S. households currently subscribe to broadband Internet services, but Gartner predicts that that percentage will grow by more than 20 points by 2012. And wireless fourth-generation broadband might be a big factor, says Amanda Sabia, a Gartner principal research analyst.

Pew’s data suggest adoption rates have accelerated in several demographic groups, though the Pew study also argues that overall adoption rates accelerated from March 2007 to April 2008.

Curiously, the researchers also say that home penetration of broadband has risen just one percentage point between December 2007 and April 2008. One has to assume that the adoption rate has slowed rather significantly over the most-recent six month period, compared to the first six months of the 12-month period studied.

The overall broadband growth rate from March 2007 to April 2008 was 17 percent, compared to the 12 percent growth rate from March 2006 to March 2007. Still, penetration among households with $20,000 or less household income fell 11 percent over the 12-month period, while growth among households earning more than $100,000 was just four percent.

From March 2006 to March 2007 home broadband penetration grew from 42 percent of Americans to 47 percent. Still, home broadband penetration grew quite little between December 2007 and April 2008, the Pew study also suggests.

The April 2008 55 percent penetration of broadband at home is little changed from the 54 percent penetration estimated in the Pew Internet Project’s December 2007 survey.

A majority of broadband users say they have a basic broadband access service. About 54 percent describe their broadband as a “basic” variety. About 29 percent say they have a premium service that offers faster speed. About 16 percent were not sure which variety they received.

Broadband users reported an average monthly bill of $34.50 in April 2008, down from $36 in December 2005.

Overall, we might characterize broadband as having reached the late adopter stage.

With growth in broadband at home, now just 10 percent of Americans have dial-up internet connections at home.

But there is reason to believe it will be a struggle to convert that last 10 percent of somewhat resistant users. In some cases, users say they would buy broadband, but cannot get it. Others say they cannot afford it, but many say they simply are not interested.

In fact, 62 percent of dial-up users say they are not interested in giving up their current connection for broadband. If that is reflected in behavior, just six percent of dial-up users are likely broadband switchers.

When asked specifically what it would take them to get them to switch to broadband, about 35 percent of dial-up users say that the price of broadband service would have to fall. Another 19 percent of dial-up users said nothing would convince them to get broadband.’

About 14 percent of dial-up users, and 24 percent of dial-up users in rural America, say that broadband service would have to become available where they live. One has to assume those respondents were not aware of the availability of satellite broadband, aggressively being sold by Hughes Network Systems and Wildblue.

Dial-up users also seem to have different attitudes about the relevance of information technology and therefore the value of broadband, quite aside from concerns about price.

When asked if they think electronic devices make them more productive, 35 percent of broadband users strongly agreed that it did compared with 19 percent of dial-up users, Per researchers say.

Roughly 27 percent of adult Americans are not Internet users at all, say Pew researchers, and they tend to be older (the median age is 61) and have lower incomes than online users (non-Internet users are more than twice as likely as users to live in low-income households).

Some 18 percent of non-Internet users have used the Internet in the past, but just 10 percent of non-Internet users say they would be interested in joining the ranks of online users.

When asked why they don’t use the Internet, 33 percent of non-users say they are not interested. Some 12 percent say they don’t have access.

Some nine percent say the Internet is too difficult or frustrating to use. About seven percent say it is too expensive while seven percent say it is a waste of time. FAT